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CME launches new pork carcass contract

frotog/ThinkstockPhotos Pig Halves in a Slaughterhouse
雖然五天加權平均值將平滑指數中的熱點,但日常指數必將有點野生。

今天,CME集團推出了新的豬胴體合同。這將交易與精益豬期貨相同的時間,大小相同,40,000磅。合同將根據每天發生的USDA豬肉切口計算,在為期五天的加權指數。交易月份也與精益豬期貨相同。

雖然五天加權平均值將平滑指數中的熱點,但日常指數必將有點野生。當然,中午報價會有助于波動。我相信,來自勞動力問題的大部分波動性莖,行業面臨的是Covid-19的直接結果。更具體地說,豬肉需要比牛肉更多的“增加加工”。這適用于成品,如香腸,布拉丁,披薩澆頭,培根和博洛尼亞。

但是,這也適用于許多批發產品。特別是火腿,在中午報價上相當不穩定。火腿被銷售為骨頭產品和骨肉產品。無骨產品被進一步加工/包裝,所有需要在包裝廠勞動。事實是,包裝機沒有足夠的勞動力來做這樣的處理。因此,我們正在經歷一塊骨頭產品的污水,并對一些無骨產品的供應非常緊密。

Contributing to the volatility, especially in the ham sector, has been excellent demand for hams and reduced output due to far fewer butcher hogs coming available than expected. Pork export demand has been record high this year. In September, recent data confirmed that pork exports were up 17% compared to September of last year.

On Nov. 5, the ham primal used in the cutout calculation, was priced at $98.36. This level is not only a 52-week high but the highest level I show for this primal (in November) going back 10 years. Looking at individual ham cuts, the 23/27-pound bone-in ham was quoted at 76 cents per pound on this date. The 23/27 boxed ham was priced at $1.02.

但是,一些無骨產品,例如推出卷孔盒式火腿,每磅1.89美元的價格被引用。被稱為無骨內部的內部的內部的人報價為2.06美元,戶外報價每磅2.08美元。你看,一些無骨產品價格近幾乎是骨頭火腿的三倍。截至10月1日的凍結火腿股票從去年的146萬英鎊下降了28%。鑒于一個正常的游戲季節,到1月份火腿股只可能約3000萬英鎊......非常緊張。

Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that production is running short of expectations. The most recent Hogs and Pigs Report projected hog slaughter during October to run 110% of last year. Instead, the actual kill was about even with the year prior. The report went further to project the kill during November should run at about 106% of last year. Again, the kills have instead been running up only about 1%.

豬和豬調查顯然沒有準確地測量和量化行業中發生的屠宰豬和嬰兒豬安樂死,他們無法衡量被認為發生的廣泛播種飼養。這種三通組合包括中止母豬的放大倍數(每個播種的近11只豬)導致調查夸大了市場飼養的豬類。正如許多次所述的那樣,今年牲畜行業發生的情況根本沒有劇本。

As expected, the October hog contract went off the board strong, expiring at $78.42. Following this expiration December hogs, trading at a substantial discount, shot upward to just above $72 but has since pulled back. The recent range of consolidation has been between $67.50 on the top side and $64.50 on the lower side. Eventually, say by the end of the week ending Nov. 14, I'm expecting December futures to resume their uptrend and likely expire strong on Dec. 14. This could take the December to where October expired, $78.50 or possibly higher.

展望進一步,我的來源表明美國豬群可能發生額外的收縮。這是必需的。一個穩固的幾個月,希望超過一年的高利可圖價格是恢復行業的損失。我們似乎是瀕臨食品價格通脹狂歡,這應該非常支持豬肉價值和豬價格。

Germany may be only days away from discovering African swine fever in their commercial hog herd. If/when this happens, large scale culling will likely have to occur. Despite what the Chinese are telling the world, the fact is the Asian hog herd has been devastated by ASF and it will take time, more time to recover and rebuild the herd. In the short term, say over the next two months, China is expected to import vast quantities of pork ahead of their lunar New Year holiday that cranks up in February.

???

I was honored to be part of theNational Hog Farmer Global Hog Industry Virtual Conferencelast month. As I mentioned during the conference, I publish an evening livestock wire for my clients. Producers can take a look at this report on a free 30-day trial. The trial also includes a morning livestock report and midday pork and beef update. If interested in the free trial, simplysend me an emailrequesting such.

資料來源:丹尼斯史密斯,誰僅對所提供的信息負責,并全權擁有該信息。信息媒體及其所有子公司對本信息資產中包含的任何內容不負責。這位作家的意見不一定是農場進度/信息的意見。
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